{"id":690,"date":"2025-01-26T06:31:52","date_gmt":"2025-01-26T06:31:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/europe-braces-for-a-new-trump-era-uncertain-about-what-it-means\/"},"modified":"2025-01-26T06:31:52","modified_gmt":"2025-01-26T06:31:52","slug":"europe-braces-for-a-new-trump-era-uncertain-about-what-it-means","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/europe-braces-for-a-new-trump-era-uncertain-about-what-it-means\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe Braces for a New Trump Era, Uncertain About What It Means"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-0\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">As Donald J. Trump took the oath of office in Washington on Monday, the crowd at a jam-packed party held by Ukrainian business groups in Davos, Switzerland, intently watched the ceremony on huge screens.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The event, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum\u2019s annual conference, seemed to be a display of enthusiasm for the returned American president. Speakers praised Mr. Trump and predicted that he would be a valuable partner for Ukraine in its war against Russia, despite his criticism of U.S. spending on the military effort. Waiters served mini cheeseburgers on red-and-blue buns (\u201cAmerican food,\u201d attendees whispered). A few people applauded at the end.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Yet the apparent optimism was a thin veneer over deep uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe expect President Trump to surprise us, but we do not know what the surprise will be,\u201d Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, said at the party.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Mr. Trump\u2019s return to the White House has plunged Europe\u2019s business leaders and policymakers into a precarious era, and officials have been bracing for it behind the scenes. The European Commission \u2014 the European Union\u2019s executive arm \u2014 formed a never-officially-announced group, sometimes colloquially referred to as a \u201cTrump task force,\u201d which spent much of 2024 working on possible responses to changes to American trade and foreign policy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-2\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Yet it is difficult for companies and government officials to know what is bluster, or bargaining chip, and what is reality. And they have learned from the first Trump administration that criticizing the American president too overtly might accomplish little and could draw attention and even retribution.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">So companies and governments alike are treading carefully to curry favor with, or at least avoid angering, the mercurial president of the world\u2019s most powerful nation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-3\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The European Commission is a case in point. Staff members on the task force spent 2024 researching possible detailed responses to the new American presidency. But in public, top officials have expressed only a willingness to negotiate in response to potential tariffs and other threats, while vaguely warning that they would retaliate to protect the bloc\u2019s own interests if necessary.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Ursula von der Leyen, the commission\u2019s president, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/eu-may-consider-replacing-russian-lng-imports-with-those-us-von-der-leyen-says-2024-11-08\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">suggested in the days<\/a> after Mr. Trump\u2019s election that Europe could buy more American liquid natural gas. That is something Mr. Trump has said Europe must do to avoid tariffs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe one thing they can do quickly is buy our oil and gas,\u201d Mr. Trump <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-01-21\/trump-again-calls-for-eu-to-buy-more-us-energy-to-avoid-tariffs?embedded-checkout=true\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">reiterated to reporters<\/a> in the White House after his inauguration on Monday. \u201cWe will straighten that out with tariffs, or they have to buy our oil and gas.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">But Ms. Von der Leyen has often spoken only in generalities about how Europe might respond to trade restrictions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-4\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cA lot is at stake for both sides,\u201d she said during a speech in Davos on Tuesday, adding that \u201cour first priority\u201d would be to negotiate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-5\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cWe will be pragmatic, but we will always stand by our principles,\u201d she said. \u201cWe will protect our interests, and uphold our values.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The task force had a wide remit but was heavily focused on tariffs, multiple people familiar with the group\u2019s work said. They requested anonymity to discuss the private talks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Olof Gill, a European Commission spokesman, confirmed the group\u2019s existence but noted that it was operational throughout 2024 \u2014 well before the actual election \u2014 and was not officially called the \u201cTrump task force.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The group was headed by Alejandro Ca\u00ednzos, an <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu\/speaker\/alejandro-cainzos\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">experienced staff member<\/a> with expertise in international relations. He declined to comment for this article.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-6\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">One strategic reason for keeping the work relatively quiet is that Europe appears to be trying to keep its options open.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">J\u00f6rn Fleck, senior director with the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, said the bloc was being more disciplined than it was in the first Trump administration, and \u201cnot getting drawn into political reaction cycles.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThat\u2019s an important learning curve that the E.U. went through,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-7\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Europe\u2019s planning for possible trade disruptions also comes in contrast to its behavior in the first Trump administration, Mr. Fleck said. Back then, <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/presscorner\/detail\/en\/ip_18_4006\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">tariffs on steel and aluminum<\/a> surprised America\u2019s allies across the Atlantic Ocean.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Even so, any preparations may have limits.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">The situation in 2017 was \u201ca much more limited threat,\u201d said Ignacio Garc\u00eda Bercero, a former official at the Directorate General for Trade of the European Commission who is now at the research group Bruegel. This time, Mr. Trump has threatened to impose across-the-board tariffs if he sees fit, rather than one-off levies on particular industries.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-8\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">And Mr. Trump\u2019s second-term actions could span multiple policy arenas, wrapping together energy, trade and defense goals.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In response, European countries \u201cneed to get much more creative,\u201d Mr. Fleck said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">In some ways, Mr. Trump\u2019s arrival is hastening changes that were already coming. Ian Lesser, who leads the German Marshall Fund\u2019s Brussels office, noted that while Mr. Trump\u2019s rhetoric could hasten more European military spending, that change was widely seen as needed.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cThe big questions he raises only reinforce existing concerns,\u201d Mr. Lesser said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Still, Mr. Trump could force European policy to evolve more rapidly.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">On Feb. 3, the European Council \u2014 which comprises the leaders of the 27 E.U. countries \u2014 will gather at a <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/press\/press-releases\/2025\/01\/20\/media-advisory-informal-eu-leaders-retreat-of-3rd-february-2025\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">ch\u00e2teau outside Brussels<\/a> to talk about the way forward on security matters, including issues like financing and common procurement. Notably, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain will attend that event, the <a class=\"css-yywogo\" href=\"https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/press\/press-releases\/2025\/01\/13\/invitation-letter-by-president-antonio-costa-to-the-members-of-the-european-council\/\" title=\"\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">first time<\/a> that a British premier has met with the full group since the country voted to exit the European Union in 2016.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n<div data-testid=\"companionColumn-9\">\n<div class=\"css-53u6y8\">\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">That highlights a possibility arising from all of the looming uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">While many in Europe are worried that Mr. Trump will strike one-by-one deals with countries in Europe \u2014 cleaving the union apart \u2014 it is also plausible that pressure could draw Europe and its partners closer together.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cI think that the public will see that there is strength in negotiating as a bloc,\u201d said Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, during an interview in a Davos cafe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">Before Monday\u2019s inauguration in Washington, Fran\u00e7ois Bayrou, the French prime minister, criticized the United States for its \u201cdomineering policy\u201d stances. But in the face of that, he said, European nations should work together.<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-at9mc1 evys1bk0\">\u201cIt\u2019s a decision that\u2019s up to us, the French and the Europeans,\u201d Mr. Bayrou told reporters in Pau, a town in southwestern France where he is still mayor. \u201cBecause obviously, without Europe, it\u2019s impossible to do it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"css-798hid etfikam0\">Aurelien Breeden<!-- -->, <!-- -->Jenny Gross<!-- --> and <!-- -->Catherine Porter<!-- --> contributed reporting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"css-ew4tgv\" aria-label=\"companion column\"\/><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As Donald J. Trump took the oath of office in Washington on Monday, the crowd at a jam-packed party held by Ukrainian business groups in Davos, Switzerland, intently watched the ceremony on huge screens. The event, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum\u2019s annual conference, seemed to be a display of enthusiasm for the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":691,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[366,367,365,369,158,368],"class_list":["post-690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-braces","tag-era","tag-europe","tag-means","tag-trump","tag-uncertain"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=690"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/690\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/691"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.insuracarelife.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}