The Strait of Hormuz has been closed, mined, contested and partially reopened since February. War risk premiums surged from 0.125% of hull value to as high as 10% for the most exposed vessels – an 80-fold increase that generated headlines about a London marine war market finally getting what it deserved after years of soft conditions. The reality, four months on, is more complicated. The market has absorbed losses, written less business than the rate headlines imply, navigated a government intervention that solved the wrong problem, and is now pricing for a recovery that may or may not hold through a 60-day ceasefire window that expires in mid-August. Whether any of this adds up to profit depends on which part of the market you are in, and whether the next six weeks produce incidents or incidents produce further mines.
Strait of Hormuz crisis: Why the biggest opportunity in marine war insurance lies ahead
